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2010 Atlanta Braves Preview
The Braves surprised a lot of observers (yours included) in 2009 by riding a surprisingly strong starting rotation to an 86-76 record, the franchise’s best since 2005. The Braves were a throwback to their old successful ways, posting the 3rd lowest ERA in the National League while only falling out of the playoff race in the final two weeks of the season.
The big question for the Atlanta faithful in 2010 will be whether there is enough offense in place to earn a playoff berth, especially after dealing top starter Javier Vasquez in the offseason in an attempt to bolster their lineup. The Braves will rely on a few older hitters for power as they attempt to return to the playoffs for the first time in five years.
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STARTING PITCHING
Much like the great Atlanta teams that earned fifteen consecutive playoff berths from 1991-2005, this year’s team will be built around excellent starting pitching. 24 year old Jair Jurrjens (14-10, 2.60 ERA, 34 Starts, 215 IP, 152 K) broke out as a star in 2009 and will be seen as a long term anchor along with 23 year old Tommy Hanson (11-4, 2.89 ERA, 21 Starts, 127 IP, 116 K), who was one of the Braves’ best starters from the day he made his debut in May.
There will also be a strong veteran presence as sinkerballer Derek Lowe (15-10, 4.67 ERA, 34 Starts, 194 IP) will look to lower his ERA after a good year that was still below his high standards. The second veteran pillar should be Tim Hudson (2-1, 3.61 ERA, 7 Starts), who pitched extremely well down the stretch in coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2008. Hudson was one of baseball’s most durable and consistent starters for a decade before his injury, so there is no reason that he can’t be an elite starter once more. The 5 th spot will be very ably filled by Kenshin Kawakami (7-12, 3.61 ERA, 25 Starts, 156 IP), who pitched well in his first year in North America in 2009. This should be one of the best rotations in baseball in 2010.
BULLPEN
As good as the starting rotation is, there are some concerns in the bullpen. New acquisition Billy Wagner has 385 career Saves and was one of the best in baseball for 12 years before missing most of last season due to Tommy John surgery. While Wagner returned to pitch well late for the Boston Red Sox, his age and recent injury are a cause for concern. However, if he is healthy, he could still be one of the best closers in baseball.
Atlanta’s top two late inning options from last season, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, have since departed, leaving a large void. Peter Moylan (2.84 ERA in 87 Games) is the top returning reliever and he highlights a group that also includes Eric O’Flaherty (3.04 ERA in 78 Games), Manny Acosta (4.34 ERA in 36 Games) and Kris Medlen (4.26 ERA in 37 Games). Finally, the addition of veteran Takashi Saito (2.43 ERA in 56 Games) could also play a role in determining the team’s late inning options. Overall, the Braves appear to have a lot of talent in place and this bullpen should do a good job nursing leads to the ninth inning.
INFIELD
Atlanta’s infield is a bit difficult to prognosticate because of the age of their corner infielders. 3 rd Baseman Chipper Jones (.264, 18 HR, 71 RBI, .388 OBP) has had a long and distinguished Major League career but he will be 38 this season and last year’s 143 games was his most durable season since 2003 and it coincided with the worst power numbers of his career. Meanwhile, new 1 st Baseman Troy Glaus missed most of last season due to injury and he has only played three full seasons since 2003. When healthy, he can be a 30 Home Run-type player but that’s a very big ‘if’.
Thus, it doesn’t bode well that Atlanta’s top offensive player is a catcher, the most physically demanding position in the game. Brian McCann (.281, 21 HR, 94 RBI, .349 OBP) is only 25 and has played over 130 games in each of the past four seasons, so he has definitely shown his durability. However, if he misses an appreciable number of games for the first time in his career then the Braves are in serious trouble. Up the middle, Shortstop Yuniel Escobar (.299, 14 HR, 76 RBI, 158 Hits, .377 OBP) put together his 2 nd consecutive excellent season in 2009 and 26 year old Martin Prado (.307, 11 HR, 49 RBI, .358 OBP) broke out as a starting 2 nd Baseman. If this group puts together a largely healthy season then there is a ton of firepower here but those odds are not very good.
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OUTFIELD
The Braves don’t bring back a single starting outfielder from Opening Day of 2009. Centerfielder Nate McLouth (.256, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 19 SB, .352) was stolen from the bumbling Pirates at midseason, leftfielder Melky Cabrera (.274, 13 HR, 68 RBI, 10 SB, .336 OBP) was the big prize in dealing away top starter Javier Vasquez and the #1 overall prospect in baseball, 20 year old Jason Heyward, is expected to start in right field. That means Cabrera, who has never been a full time starter in his career, and a 20 year old prospect was has never had a major league at-bat are going to be relied on to produce in key power positions. The other option is solid hand Matt Diaz (.313, 13 HR, 58 RBI, 12 SB, .390 OBP) taking one of the starting spots. In short, the Braves have a lot of young talent but only McLouth has proven that he can be a consistent Major League producer.
OUTLOOK
The Braves are undoubtedly stacked on the mound. They’ll run out a solid starter every night and their pitchers will keep them in nearly every game. The biggest questions are all in regards to their lineup. Will Chipper and Glaus stay healthy? Can McCann continue his amazing durability behind the plate? Will Heyward become a star or a typical inconsistent rookie? Is Melky a true everyday player? With some many questions, it is difficult to project the Braves to improve upon last season’s 86 wins and it seems most likely that they’re going to finish right around that mark again. Unfortunately, the Marlins and the Phillies simply look like better teams with fewer question marks and that means that the Braves are our choice to finish 3 RD in NL East.
By Matt Baxendell
MLBcenter.com Staff Writer
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> View all of the 2010 MLB team previews from MLBCenter.com
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